• 3 Posts
  • 11 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 19th, 2023

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  • Good thing this is not true.

    You’re probably referring to ruzzia having three times more people than Ukraine. There are several factors why this is not as important as it might seem.

    First is that ruzzia is attacking and the attacking side usually sustains 1:3 loss ratio. Second is that their approach was always to disregard their own, so the ratio is at least 1:5, likely even worse. And third, is that despite they have 140 million people, after you deduct women, children, old and sick, and ruzzian tooth to tail ratio of 1:1, you end up with the maximum army of 5 million.

    And they already lost 20%. And some of those 20% were actually trained. And men that are fit for army are also for for work.

    Which all basically means that if the sanctions pressure is kept, if Ukraine has enough ammunition (and they claim 30% is already made domestically) and as long as Ukraine keeps the loss ratio in its favour, ruzzia will simply implode.

    Somebody calculated that at the current “advance” speed, ruzzia will need 140 years to occupy Ukraine. If Ukraine keeps doing what it’s doing, it needs maybe two.

    It’s not going to be nice two years, but with a little support, Ukraine is winning and will win.



  • It would be 9 years, if only one linear factor was at play.

    I believe it’s multiple factors, though.

    One is that every plane taken out had its share of “work”, which is now distributed across the remaining ones. Which means they get worn out a little faster. Similar to how they have to cannibalise parts from one civilian aircraft to repair another.

    Then I’m going they cannot maintain the usual production speed because if the sanctions. Add to that an increased need to repair since the plains are more heavily used. And I’d guess that repairs are fine at the same facility that produces them, this also reducing production speed.

    In other words, I think it’s about snowballing and at this rate it could be way less than nine years.