Gun ownership is restricted(1 gun per 27 people vs 1.5:1 in the US.), so they would be up against polynesian melee weapons and a fierce Ha’a.
Sure, there are military bases and the Pacific Fleet to get past, but we are assuming landfall is possible with the map.
Pretty much zero.
The Dems would need to have an actual platform other than orange man and couch fucker bad. They keep running on feelings and vibes without a concrete plan to improve things. Not that they will be able to accomplish anything of value, given the circumstances, which will not help in 2028. Then there is the 3rd parties that could form that really makes things worse.
Without a serious effort by the Dems, we are almost certainly going to have another 4 years of Republican Whitehouse in 2028 and the best hope is a slight majority in Congress.