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21 days agoIdk, the vaccination rates are questionable, though wtf NJ? https://www.axios.com/2025/12/31/measles-flu-vaccine-mmr-rates-2026
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Joined 3 years ago
Cake day: July 4th, 2023
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72·1 month agoSell it, or buy and return items to make cash, invest it.
12·1 month agoTraffic lights are the same colors as a subset of bell peppers?
I can do that and flare my nostrils, my brother always made fun of me for it.
4·3 months agoThis does a fantastic job describing the situation
Better there than wasting money at a motel, rushing and making mistakes else where. Opportunity to provide contraceptives via ready access in bathroom. Set boundaries, I don’t want you hear it etc, but turn a bound eye if not too atrocious. No kids but my parents did that for me, I chose not too have kids, but were it not for those reasons I’d likely have one about the same age now.
This thought appears on Reddit r/showerthoughts in 2024, potentially prior, though I guess who’s to say it’s not original
So the concept is that the models are kicking out these common themes and naming patterns, so there must be a source that correlates them together? And if it’s not public domain then there’s some copyright material at the foundation of many different commercial models?
Not every single one, that would be too expensive, make it the next to last so their confidence is high.
Liftoff - https://github.com/liftoff-app/liftoff
Hole: Russia is highly dependent on oil and gas, but it does not only sell oil.
Why it matters:
Russia exports:
Natural gas (distinct markets, long-term contracts)
Nuclear technology (Rosatom)
Wheat (top global exporter)
Arms (historically #2 globally)
Metals (nickel, palladium, aluminum)
Climate transition threatens Russia, but not instant or total collapse.
Effect on argument: Weakens the claim that green energy = automatic “total destruction of Russia.”
Hole: The argument assumes a rapid, unified global transition away from fossil fuels.
Reality:
Energy transitions take decades
Oil demand remains strong in:
India
Southeast Asia
Africa
Even Europe still buys fossil fuels indirectly
Why this matters: Russia has time to:
Redirect exports
Delay transitions
Sabotage international coordination (which it does)
The threat is real—but not imminent enough to explain panic-level behavior.
Hole: The argument reduces Putin’s motivations to two drivers only: NATO + oil.
Missing factors:
Regime survival
Domestic legitimacy
Elite power balance
Demographics collapse
Fear of democratic contagion
Personal risk of removal
Why it matters: Russia invades neighbors even when NATO isn’t involved (Georgia, Chechnya, Syria).
This suggests authoritarian control, not only NATO pressure, drives aggression.
Hole: The argument treats Trump as:
Strategically consistent
Disciplined
Capable of long-term coordination
Problem: Trump is impulsive, chaotic, and often acts against Russian interests:
Sanctioned Nord Stream 2
Sent lethal aid to Ukraine
Killed Russian mercenaries in Syria (Wagner)
More plausible: Trump is useful chaos, not a controlled partner.
Hole: The argument slides from:
This is a classic analytical mistake.
Countries often benefit from:
Accidental alignment
Internal dysfunction
Populism elsewhere
Benefit ≠ orchestration.
Hole: Claims about:
Special forces flights
Journalists as covers
Mass infiltration
Issue:
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
Russia does conduct intelligence ops—but scaling this to U.S. takeover lacks proof
Why it matters: Speculation undermines otherwise serious arguments.
Hole: The argument underestimates:
Federalism
Military command separation
Intelligence compartmentalization
Independent courts
State-level election control
Reality: The U.S. is one of the hardest countries to “take over” covertly.
Russia historically succeeds where:
Institutions are weak
Media is centralized
Economies are dependent
The U.S. does not fit that profile.
Hole: This mirrors Russian propaganda framing.
Missing context:
Ukraine sought NATO after Russian aggression
NATO repeatedly rejected Ukraine membership
Russia violated Ukraine’s sovereignty before NATO expansion became credible
This weakens credibility, even if NATO tension is real.
Hole: Heavy use of:
Sexual blackmail narratives
Personal degeneracy claims
Gangster caricatures
Problem: These may be emotionally compelling but:
Are weakly evidenced
Distract from structural explanations
Make the argument sound conspiratorial
Serious geopolitics works without villain porn.
Hole: The argument implies:
Reality:
Russia had invasion plans long before Paris Accords
Military buildup preceded climate policy milestones
Oil demand remained high during Trump years
Correlation ≠ causation.
Hole: The argument assumes:
Democrats were leading a unified global front
Climate action was unstoppable
Reality:
U.S. climate policy has always been fragile
European dependence on Russian energy continued
China’s “excitement” was strategic, not altruistic
Russia likely saw fragmentation, not inevitability.
Hole: If Russia were executing a master plan, why:
Fail in Kyiv?
Underestimate Ukrainian resistance?
Expose military corruption?
Trigger NATO expansion (Finland, Sweden)?
These outcomes suggest miscalculation, not chess mastery.
Hole: Kennan’s Long Telegram emphasizes:
Containment
Patience
Structural weakness
The post instead frames Russia as:
Omnipotent
Omnipresent
Hyper-competent
That contradicts Kennan’s core thesis.
Bottom Line
Strongest part of the argument:
Russia fears NATO
Russia fears energy transition
Russia exploits democratic division
Weakest parts:
Overconfidence in Russian competence
Over-attribution of coordination
Speculative leaps
Treating Trump as an intentional agent rather than chaotic alignment