• 0 Posts
  • 108 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: May 14th, 2024

help-circle









  • It’s more than just that. Smaller models are improving rapidly and are already “good enough” for the majority of consumer use cases. It is entirely realistic that in a few years, there will be virtually no demand for trillion-parameter LLMs. Demand for inference might not shrink in terms of functionality, but it will absolutely shrink in terms of memory and compute requirements. And then there will be a hell of a lot more server capacity available than anyone needs or wants, because they’re over-investing like crazy now.

    What happens when hundreds of billions of dollars spent on datacenters basically goes *poof*?


  • I’ve heard of similar techniques using masks on the back of your head to discourage tiger attacks in villages close to wild tiger populations.

    As I recall, it gets less effective over time because tigers are not stupid, just risk-averse. They learn with repeated exposure.

    I’m going from memory. I’ll try to dig up sources when I have time.

    Edit: Found it on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_attacks_in_the_Sundarbans#Precautions

    Fishermen and bushmen originally created masks made to look like faces to wear on the back of their heads because tigers always attack from behind. This worked for a short time, but the tigers quickly caught on to the ruse, and the attacks reportedly continued. One local honey gatherer, Surendra Jana, 57, summarised the general feeling of the tigers adapting to their efforts: “Before we could understand the way they attacked…We don’t feel safe any more, knowing our brothers have been attacked in spite of the tricks we use.”



  • Yeah, the business model is not sustainable. They’re playing with funny money for now. There are only a few ways for them to make real money: raise prices a ton, scale back model sizes, and focus on government/military contracts (i.e. steal from taxpayers).

    Oh, and enshittify. Enshittify like no one’s ever enshittified before.

    They’re already starting, on all fronts.

    OpenAI is raising prices like mad this year, and imposing stricter usage limits. They just basically cut the value of their $200/month plan in half while introducing a new $500/month plan. API costs also doubled for some models back in May.

    Recently there was an article saying how AI costs are falling by 13x per year: https://archive.is/U0Fju . So as time goes on, they’ll likely be able to offer “similar” levels of performance for drastically lower costs, and just pocket the difference.

    Today’s smaller models compare favorably with the biggest models from 2-3 years ago. ChatGPT 3.5 was a “big deal” in 2024, and now you can run a model that performs better on a decent laptop or even a high-end smartphone, basically for free. Small open models keep improving at a steady rate.

    They’re indirectly jacking up prices of electronics so much that consumer-level hardware is basically frozen in time, and in some cases even regressing. Look at Microsoft re-introducing 8GB Surface laptops after spending so much marketing money telling people they had to go up to a minimum of 16GB. If I re-built my PC today with the same specs, it would cost about double what I paid a few years ago. So maybe people actually won’t be able to run anything on their own hardware in the near future. Like Uber and AirBNB and Amazon before them, they could start to look comparatively better than the alternatives by destroying the entire fucking market around them. I don’t know how long that will hold though. It can’t stay like this forever…right? Right?!?







  • some combination of sort, wc, cut and grep

    Word of warning: none of these tools are CSV-aware. You can hack together something that will work for basic files, but once you get something with quotations or escapes to include commas within the text of a field, you will really want a true CSV parser.

    sqlite3 can import and export CSV files directly.

    Python’s csv module is great.

    VisiData is a cool CLI spreadsheet/csv/database viewer.